Abstract
Estimates of climate change to the year 2050 in the Mantaro River basin based on IPCC projections and statistical downscaling methods indicate an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall during the rainy season (summer). In a zone that has already suffered serious droughts in the past; this new factor will aggravate the increasing conflicts related with water supply for its use in human consumption, industry, agricultural use, and hydroelectric energy.
The population most affected, without doubt, will be the less prepared and informed, with limited access to economic, social, financial e institutional resources, specifically, the population in poverty and inequity conditions.
The present research attempts to answer some specific questions related to adaptation process to climate change: is gender a factor that characterizes a more vulnerable population to the negative impacts of climate change?, what is the role of institutions in adaptation processes?, is the weakness of regional and national institutions an aggravating factor of vulnerability?, and if the answer is yes, can this situation be reverted?.
Case study zone
The Mantaro river basin is located in Peruvian Central Andes, the total area of the basin is 34.550,08 Km2. The Mantaro river is one of the most important in the region, its discharge depends on precipitation, the level of Junin Lake (the main reservoir), and the water in lagoons formed by the melting of glaciers in the eastern cordillera.
This basin has great importance because its hydroelectric plants generate nearly 35% of the electricity of the country; and the agricultural production of the Mantaro valley provides Lima (the capital city, which contains over a third of the national population) with most of its food. Furthermore almost 50% of its population (which exceeds 700.000) are located in the mid-low and low strata, according to the human development index of UNDP.
Statistical downscaling of climate change
Estimates of the effect of climate change on the Mantaro Basin to the year 2050 indicate the following: an increase in temperature of the order of 1°C, an increase in specific humidity of 1 g/kg, but a decrease in relative humidity of 6%, and a decrease of 19% of the precipitation during the summer, which corresponds to the peak of the rainy season. All of the climate models considered projected increases in both temperature and specific humidity but decreasing relative humidity and rainfall, with relatively low spread among the estimates.
The problems related to water resources – level of deglatiation, lack of potable and irrigation water, etc - that at the moment undergoes the Mantaro Basin, are likely to become more and more serious in the next years if we consider the effects of climate change, which may include reduced precipitation and higher temperatures. If we add to this the fast population growth, migration, land use change and deforestation, the situation could become unmanageable in a few years time.
Climate change adaptation in Central Andes
The adaptation measures to face this situation include a broad range of possibilities, but they must consider biophysical, ecological, social, economic, political and institutional factors, and the roles and opinions of stakeholders involved, in order to be effectively adopted. The stakeholders in Mantaro basin include the population and their municipal authorities, regional government, irrigation users board commissions, civil defense, regional agricultural office, etc.
Due to factors affecting the decision making associated with the implementation of adaptation measures, such as institutional weakness, political opportunism, weakened democracy, corruption, along with the lack or misuse of biophysical information, past measures related to adaptation to climate variability have had have only medium or little success, and we estimate that the situation will not be different for climate change. Due to this situation, we consider that nonstructural adaptation measures to the negative consequences of climate change - incentives to sustainable land use; good use practices of water resources, etc. - rather than structural ones, which have been emphasized in the past, would be more effectively adopted by local governments and population.
Furthermore, it is crucial to take into account that the capacity of the human systems to adapt depends on factors that do not depend themselves on climate, such as technology, education, information, creativity, innovation, access to resources and institutional capacity.
Institutions and gender in climate change adaptation
Institutional weakeness is a factor that increases the vulnerability of the population to posible climate change impacts in Mantaro basin. This weakness is manifested in the lack of stakeholders' knowledge and/or participation in institutional decisions, overlap of functions between institutions, corruption in the use of governmental funds, etc. We consider that a viable strategy to revert this situation, is to increase the active participation of women in the activities and decision-making of institutions related to use and management of natural resources, like water resources.
Gender has been found to be a factor that characterizes the most vulnerable population in the Mantaro basin. In this population in risk, the women are more vulnerable than men, due to the existing relations of inequity between the genders, mainly related to land property and housing, and the disparity in the decision making in matters of local management, in spite of the economic importance of the domestic and productive activities that women develop, and of its strong participation in community management activities.
Paradoxically, the gender realities permit that the sector of the population that first detects environmental problems, that have a better use of the natural resources, and that permits equitable distribution of the income, are women.
Trial cases suggest that the knowledge and support of women of nonstructural measures, like incentives to sustainable land use and good use practices of water resources, could have good results in the rational management of water resources and other associated subjects, due to their knowledge of the use and distribution of the resource, as well as to the fiscalizing role women naturally have.
In summary, we consider that it is necessary to strengthen the institutions in the Mantaro basin and the role of stakeholders – including women; and that nonstructural measures could be more effectively adopted by local governments and population, like an adaptive strategy against the negative consequences of climate change.
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