Abstract
Vulnerability and adaptive capacity to change are location-specific, and many decisions regarding climate-induced risks are made at the local and regional levels. This makes it necessary to survey stakeholders’ understandings of their situation and perceived problems. Assessments should also include other ongoing changes and multiple impacts, such as globalisation, that may effect communities’ vulnerability.
This paper presents a three-year assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. It includes the development of methodology and a conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment, as well as its application in a multi-case (Norway, Sweden and Finland) and multi-sectorial (forestry, fishing and reindeer herding) study. The study is novel in this both conceptual and applied approach, as well as in focusing on the multi-level context of vulnerability and adaptation, rather than only on the community level or the national level.
Methodology
Methodologically, the study has been carried out through a combination of literature surveys, some in total 60 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders and six main stakeholder meetings, with the aim to develop an accurate, triangulated, understanding of the multiple impacts on vulnerability in selected localities. Interviews and stakeholder meetings have been targeted at understanding stakeholders’ priorities and experiences rather than their conception of the terms “globalisation” and “climate change” as such. Rather than using these concepts in interaction with stakeholders, thus, stakeholders have been asked to describe their present situation: how it has changed over their time of work in the selected sectors, what trends of change they perceive, which their problems and possibilities are, and how and through which networks they can adapt to problems. Stakeholders have additionally been asked how specific impacts of climate change, derived from a literature study of scenario and impacts literature for the chosen regions and sectors, would effect them. Questions on climate change have been put in a lay format, for instance, “How would it impact you if spring came earlier? How could you adapt to this?”.
Case study selection
The practical application of the study centers on stakeholders in the reindeer herding, forestry and fishing sectors in three case study areas: northern Norway, Sweden and Finland. Stakeholders are here seen as the main actors that are impacted by change in the sectors and areas, and include large and small-scale companies and industry; private, public and sectorial interest organisations; local government; forestry machine operators; individual fishermen and reindeer herders. Each sector has been studied in an area where it is traditionally important, and where potential vulnerability could be large. The area studied is relatively low populated and peripheral, rendering it potentially socio-economically and politically vulnerable. It is also as a far northern area one where impacts of climate change are projected to take effect relatively early. Forestry and reindeer herding have been studied in the Piteå and Kemi river valleys in northern Sweden and northern Finland, respectively. Fishing and reindeer herding has been studied in the Tana river basin and adjacent coastline in northern Norway.
Conceptual framework for organization of stakeholders’ narratives
Beyond adaptive capacity and specific adaptations to specified potential climatic changes, stakeholders have mainly described their economic and political situations as well as changes in these situations, in response to the questions above. These stakeholders’ narratives have been compared with main directions indicated in economic and political globalization literature. Stakeholders have also described the decision-making networks they see as determining the conditions under which they work. These networks have been conceived of by utilizing the concept of multi-level governance, which captures the understanding that decision-making is constituted by government as well as various private or market actors on several levels, many of which are not elected decision-makers responsive to local citizens. The study thereby shows upon the varied institutional context in which adaptations would need to take place. The study also shows upon the norms held by different actors such as local stakeholders and the national or international actors they describe.
Results
The study illustrates that the sectors and their relation to the environment can largely be seen as determined by outside factors: globalization, international norms and market demands. Factors common to stakeholders’ narratives and globalization literature include an increasing internationalization of companies and markets, an increasingly competitive economic environment, and increasing impacts from also international levels of decision-making. Many of the adaptations and decision-making power stakeholders discuss lie at national and even international levels. Stakeholders also often perceive that national and international actors make decisions based in different priorities and norms than those held at the local level. Stakeholders also feel that their own capacity to influence their situation is limited, mainly to individual economic actions to decrease the costs and increase income of their products. This is as few feedback possibilities to higher levels of decision-making exist, as the regional bodies accessible to the local actors mainly handle implementation of decisions at higher levels rather than communicate information back to decision-makers.
The study illustrates that while climate change will have an impact on these regions, its effect will be superseded by that of broader socio-economic change. Of the sectors, reindeer herding was the most highly impacted, as even minute changes in weather conditions impact grazing availability and some stakeholders already today exist near their adaptive limit. Adaptations that were targeted were, however, mainly economic and political, and thus determined by economic and political frameworks such as the price they gain for their produce, and the costs for developing this produce, mediated for instance by national support frameworks.
Conclusion
The study shows upon the need for communication feedback systems between local and higher levels, and a need for research to target understanding these multi-level capacities and constraints to adaptation, rather than only local or national actions. Adaptive capacity lies to a large extent within the regulative capacities on national and even international level, which means that adaptive capacity cannot only be researched within a local community, but needs to take into account communication, feedback and interaction possibilities across levels, and the entire regulative and market framework of actors.
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